Who'll take the cake in ’08

By GovDan

Let’s ignore the old pros who say “issues, shmissues” and take a look at what the still overly numerous presidential candidates (let’s call them the “Gang of 28”) are saying about issues that affect people in Baja other than quarelling about Iraq. Actually, darn little, except repeating old bromides and mouthing emotional applause lines.

All the main Dems are for universal, affordable healh care but virtually no one understands the differences in the various plans being touted. All the Republicans are fearful of a government-controlled system where Uncle Sam is the single-pay. All Dems are vocally upset about global warming; all Repubs are skittish about it, wary of their big-money corporate contributors.

Down here in Baja, both Americanos and Mexicanos care deeply about several other issues. Immigration reform is one. The Gang of 28 still dodges as though this was a hot wire like social security.

But willy nilly, it’s still an issue in Baja and will rear its head again in the presidential contest. Certainly in populous California which will be a big player in the February 5 mega primary. And in Nevada and New Mexico.

And what about free trade, another issue the Gang of 28 is avoiding? See all those big rigs out there on the free road and the toll road? NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement, made them roll and brought mucho jobs to Baja.

The unions up north hate NAFTA, always have. Jobs going south, they yell. But Bill Clinton won the day and his successor, George Bush, wants similar trade deals for Central and South America. But Congress has its back up.

Asked privately about immigration and free trade, one candidate’s manager ducked. When asked, “What about the Latino vote?” he grinned slyly. “C’mon now. Only 13% of the qualified Latinos across the nation bothered to vote in ’06. So why should we get excited about immigration and free trade?

The answer’s obvious. It’s not just the Latinos; millions of other people care about these issues. Certainly the unions will continue to fight over immigration, globalization, and free trade.

So the top Dems (Clinton, Obama and Edwards), all vying strongly for union support in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, are afraid of these issues. No less than one-third of the Iowa caucus goers and one-fourth of the New Hampshire voters came from union households in ’04. Actually, the pro-worker, pro union Dem candidates make up a field of dreams for the union bosses.

Then there are the idealistic twenty-somethings who detest globalization as an alliance between big business in the U.S. and dictatorships and oligarchies around the world. They yell that it suppresses the little folks and their placards at all the big demonstrations spell this out with four-ketter words.

Even pro-choice is slipping among Dems as a talking issue. Hillary and some others are worried about the increasingly larger number of abortions throughout the nation. Some Democratic moderates are pressing for a message that their party would work to reduce that number.

In short, the Gang of 28 is tiptoeing through a bunch of minefield issues. Unfortunately, images continue to trump serious issue discussions. What happened to the touted virtue of presidential campaigns as a way to educate and take the pulse of voters on issues?

But back to the candidate horse race. Field positions have not changed much. In the national surveys, Clinton coninues to dominate the Dems with Obama running second and Edwards third with little relative movement by anyone. Among voters in the early primary states, Hillary did suffer and Obama gained from their recent foreign policy spat about dealing with leaders of rogue state.

In Iowa and New Hampshire, surveys show that many voters liked Obama’s insistence that he would agree to immediate face-to-face meetings with leaders of Syria, Iran, North Korea, and other states. His seemingly new-direction stance contrasted sharply with Hillary’s more cautious approach emphasizing diplomacy.

Clinton continues to compare her strength and experience with Obama’s inexperience, but Obama likes this battlefield. He’s fresh and inspiring, doing particularly well with both young voters and upper educated elites.

Surveys are showing, though, that Obama’s not communicating well with the blue-collar base of the party. No matter, recent surveys in early primary states show him on the rise, Clinton lagging. Latino Richardson is still slugging, highlighting his impressive resume and experience as a governor.

On the Republican side, Giuliani retains his remarkable lead. He’s even gaining from Tennesse Thompson, who for weeks has been attracting numerous voters as a savant for conservatism. Thompson’s now sliding some in the polls, hurt by a churning staff, very disappointing fund raising, and (say some) an overly meddlesome wife.

McCain continues to struggle. Romney is coming on strong in both Iowa and New Hampshire. None of the single-digit contestants are breaking out and there’s no sign of a dark horse. In short, there’s definitely no clear winner in either of the fields.