Who Will Be The Real Losers
in Mexico’s Election?

By Carlos Luken
MexiData.info

A year ago Mexico’s July 2006 presidential election was expected to be uninteresting. Most political observers had already predicted a runaway victory for the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) shoo-in candidate, then Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO.
 
AMLO’s lead in the polls held steady during most of 2005, with voter preferences finally shifting in January 2006, once Mexico’s two other major parties defined their individual candidates. The ruling National Action Party (PAN) having nominated Felipe Calderon, whereas the formerly invincible Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) named Roberto Madrazo.
 
January and February were mostly uneventful however, and AMLO held onto his lead even after a surge to second by PAN’s Calderon, as the PRI’s Madrazo fell to a distant third.
 
During the campaign’s first stirrings in 2005, each party’s internal primaries were the most antagonistic in recent memory. The PRI’s Madrazo survived a veritable mutiny by once unwaveringly loyal party members, and Lopez Obrador too was faced with significant opposition from authentic members of the PRD who considered him an opportunist considering his past PRI militancy. As well, it was said that Felipe Calderon encountered resistance from PAN insiders and government officials in beating a heavily favored and sponsored opponent, Santiago Creel.
 
Moreover, these internal party clashes were sadly public, aired openly to overly optimistic citizens still taking their initial steps on the road to democracy, and once again there was bitter disillusionment.
 
As poll numbers and expectations started to shift in March 2006, Calderon rather unexpectedly rose to a more solid second place while Madrazo still trailed. Yet Lopez Obrador held onto a comfortable lead over both of his opponents, and analysts saw voter preferences as still too volatile to guarantee any candidate’s victory.
 
Since then Mexico’s presidential race has sunk into a bitter conflict, a brawl being fought mainly in the media. Mudslinging has become commonplace, with any vestiges of ethical decorum forsaken in a cannibalistic frenzy. All candidates have been tarnished by unproven accusations, personal attacks and out-and-out insults. Making things worse, already disappointed voters are hearing few specifics as no important issues have truly been addressed, and realistic programs are few and far between.
 
Lopez Obrador’s alleged errors as Mexico City mayor, his confrontational campaign style and belligerent criticism of President Vicente Fox, along with speculated economic consequences due to his populist dogma, have made him a quick target for his opponent’s harassment. And with this recent polls indicate that his advantage may have peaked, as he has now slipped in his percentage point lead.
 
For the first time in the campaign, some recent polls have Calderon leading Lopez Obrador by two percentage points (actually a technical tie), and Madrazo is reported to have moved up to a close third. Other polls show AMLO leading with 34 percent, and Calderon and Madrazo on his heels tied at 32 percent.
 
Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute has announced that 76 million citizens are officially registered to vote. As past experiences show, the offensive behavior and displays staged by the major candidates may bring about even more public discontent, and lead to apathy and absenteeism on Election Day. The most optimistic political expectations are that some 42 million constituents might vote (55 percent), which would mean the possible margin of victory could be as small as 1 million ballots.
 
Furthermore, and considering today’s belligerent atmosphere, there is a high probability of hundreds of post-electoral objections, challenges and grievances that could upset the voting process for months as electoral tribunals render decisions on a case by case basis, or if the matters must ultimately be decided by Mexico’s Supreme Court.
 
Given Mexico’s fragile democratic experience and intolerant political environment, these proceedings could send the country into uncertainty and create significant authority crises for the current and future administrations.
 
It would also mean that the incoming administration will rule with a negligible constituency lead, and will once again have to face a conflict-ridden and probably uncooperative legislature. An obstructionistic Congress with no party holding a majority, and yet to be passed legislative reforms – that are vitally needed – will quite probably continue to be politically delayed.
 
But Mexico’s highest price paid as a result of all this may be the loss of credibility among the general public. This due in large part to citizen’s frustration with the democratic process as partisan politicians continue to assail one another in their quest for political and personal power instead of working to solve the nation’s many problems.